Monday 20 June 2016

Brexit, exit, polls, politics

and more. Yes, I am watching.
My cousin in London tells me he thinks Remain will win - but that the result will be close. A friend in the UK has just posed the interesting question of "what would happen if the result came out exactly 50-50?" I am assuming he means an exactly even number of  votes for and against. Hmmm....
It would be better for everyone if there was a decisive vote - one way or the other. 
Of course even that doesn't ensure that those on the losing side won't try again. Remember that vote we had about Downunder becoming a republic? A majority of people in every state and territory voted against the proposal. Those who want a republic are still pushing the issue. Their argument was that it was the way the question was asked, the proposal which was put, that people really did want a republic it was just that.... They are simply unwilling to accept the result.
In this state we have a government that was formed on a minority of the votes. It was just that they managed to get a majority of the seats - and then shore up their support with the help of people who perhaps should have shown more respect for democracy over personal power.
I have my doubts about the EU as an effective body. Those doubts are perhaps similar to my doubts about the UN - a body I know perhaps too much about.  Both need reform - major reform.
Both started out with good intentions perhaps but they are simply too diverse. Some countries are simply more powerful than others. It means that, inevitably, they will dictate - at least to some degree. They will not want to give up the power they have in favour of a reformed organisation that may actually achieve more of the goals and objectives in the original plan. Whichever way the Brexit vote goes things will not be the same again.
And here Downunder we are perhaps moving in a similar direction. We could have a hung parliament. The current Prime Minister holds views more in keeping with the Opposition - and is much less likely to listen to the views of his party than previous Prime Ministers of either persuasion. He may win the election but it may not be a win for democracy if he is able to impose his views against those of his party. 
That question of "what happens if..." is interesting because it doesn't need to be an even vote for the minority to succeed in imposing their point of view.

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