Tuesday 22 February 2022

So Putin has decided that the

Donetsk and Luhansk regions are independent and no longer form part of Ukraine? That's interesting. I wonder what made him decide that? He doesn't seem to have asked the residents of those regions or done any negotiating with Kyev.

And why does Putin never want Ukraine to be part of NATO or aligned with the rest of Europe?

I am sure the answer to that is much more complex than concerns about security concerns along the Russian border with Ukraine. Our news media is making it sound as if it is all fairly simple but really it isn't simple at all. Russia annexed Crimea for more than one reason. It would like to annexe other parts of Ukraine too - the entire country if it could. There are other pockets of land it would also like to lay claim to if it could but Ukraine is of particular importance. It is the buffer between Russia and "the West". Claiming Donetsk and Luhansk are "independent" suits him very nicely. 

It isn't likely that Russia has any fear of being overrun by any European country or even the EU itself. It is much more likely that the Kremlin is worried about internal dissent. By suggesting there are such serious external concerns they can keep their own citizens under control. It doesn't matter in the least that these external concerns are largely of their own making, indeed imagination in most instances. Putin has no interest in what the residents of Ukraine think. The "separatists" are Russians.

And there is also the very large issue of Ukraine's resources. Moscow would dearly love to be able to get their hands on some, if not all, of those. Ukraine has the largest recoverable reserves of uranium in Europe - a prize well worth having if you want to remain nuclear, go nuclear or support nuclear elsewhere. Ukraine also has titanium, manganese, iron ore, mercury and all that very useful shale gas.  If you are not even too concerned about climate change there are billions of tons of coal to be had. They have the fourth greatest amount of natural resources in the world. Russia wants these and it will go on claiming that Ukraine is really just part of Russia for this reason.

Ukraine also has a vast area of arable land - the largest in Europe. It exports more sunflower oil than any other country and a great deal of the world's barley. They also export rye, potatoes, corn, and wheat. Their farmers have become active in trying to save the world's bee population too. Recent figures suggest they could feed 600m people a year - indefinitely.

It is an industrialised country too - although much of it needs modernising. And yes, that natural gas pipeline is important to the rest of Europe.

Yes, Ukraine is a country worth trying to take over. If Russia cannot do it by unilateral decree or stealth or by making demands over spurious "security" concerns then taking it by force is certainly an option - for them.

You don't send 190,000 troops to the border for "manouvres". You don't remain in a neighbouring country when "joint exercises" are over. You are there because you want to tell everyone "We will take it by force if you don't give it to us." 

Russia should be concentrating on their 15m Covid cases - and the loss at least 340,000 people to the disease. That Putin somehow believes invading another non-aggressive country is more important than this frightens me.

 

2 comments:

Hilde said...

One can read about situations like this in history textbooks - and think "Why did nobody do anything about it when it still was time?" Here we even have politicians, mostly from the Social Democrats, who say the can understand why Putin feels threatened. Sadly it would not be the first time when a war was used to distract from problems within the country.
Hilde in Germany

catdownunder said...

You are so right Hilde!