Sunday, 15 April 2018

The air strike in Syria

is an alarming new development in an already tense and complex situation.
I need to be cautious about what I say here because I know this will be read. That's not being dramatic. It is simply a fact of life.
The Senior Cat  has just been perusing the pages of the Sunday paper. Neither of us normally bother to read this. It is simply part of the subscription which allows him to have access to the paper on the other six days a week. There is some news in those. The Sunday paper is, for the most part, sport and things like "human interest" stories. As the Senior Cat refuses to watch a news service or listen to one he relies on six days a week and yours truly for his information. We pass the paper over to a neighbour instead.
This morning the Senior Cat was sufficiently worried to look at the paper. The Senior Cat has lived through several wars. WWII, Korea, Vietnam and Iraq have all occurred in his lifetime. He is a pacifist at heart and has always said he would only use violence to restrain someone attacking his family - and then he would prefer to negotiate than use physical violence. He asked me to try and explain what I thought was gong on.
I told him that, for President Assad, there is only one option - and that is  to win. He needs a resounding victory. President Putin needs a resounding victory too. He has been supporting Assad. 
President Trump needs a victory too - even if it is just to boost his popularity at home. President Erdogan of Turkey also needs a victory to quell the unrest in his own country and take out the separatists. Hamas would like to use the conflict for their own purposes and Iran might well be willing to assist them destroy Israel. Israel would also look to America for help. Lebanon does not have a stable government and could be used for the military purposes of its neighbours. Cyprus is strategically so important it would be drawn into the conflict.
And, as if all that is not enough, Britain needs to support America more than ever because of Brexit. Europe is not coping with the influx of refugees from the conflict zones, particularly refugees who are so culturally different and who are making loud demands for their culture, values and religion to be accepted as the norm.
A mess? Yes, a mess of massive proportions.
I would like to put all the leaders on a desert island somewhere.
There is no appetite for war among the rest of us.

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