Monday, 23 June 2025

Do domestic politics matter more than foreign policy?

I will repeat that, do domestic politics matter more than foreign policy? It would seem they do to our Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs. They are fence sitting.

They are fence sitting and making fools of themselves, and us, to the rest of the world.  I suppose I am not really surprised but I am alarmed by their "calm down and negotiate" stance on every issue. Oh yes, it sounds good and it sounds even better if look as if you are not taking sides. 

Let it be said now that I am also alarmed by the escalation of the situation in what we call the Middle East. The situation in Gaza should never have been allowed to reach the level it did.  It reached that level partly because "diplomacy" and "negotiations" failed. There was no real desire for these things to succeed. Backed by Iran the Hamas terrorists believed they could wipe out the "cancer" as the leadership of Iran likes to consider Israel. It has proven to be more difficult than that, much more difficult.

The idea that the politically insignificant country I live in can influence a major conflict by fence sitting is ridiculous. It is also dangerous. If we were invaded in a hostile way from the north then why would anyone come to our aid? It was already doubtful but now it is almost a certainty that the rest of the world would simply let the invaders move in. 

We need friends but we are treating those who should be friends as casual acquaintances and fair weather friends. The question is why of course. At the risk of grossly over simplifying the situation I would say it has more to do with domestic politics than foreign policy.  We have just had an election and the government was returned with what seems like a huge majority. Yes, they have more than twice the number of seats as their main opposition. Their grip on power is being touted as "secure" and it is being said they will be in government for at least another term after this - and perhaps another. 

But is that really the case? Labor had around thirty-four percent of first preferences. The Coalition had around thirty-two percent of first preferences. Labor is relying on those preferences. It is relying on preferences to get them through next time too. Without them there are seats where more radical candidates will win, much more radical candidates. We might want to deny it but Muslims make up the second largest religious grouping in this country. Christianity still comes first but Islam comes next. 

According to the last census 3.2% of the population identified as Muslim. It may not seem much, indeed too small to worry about, but their influence is far greater than it would seem. The present government is very aware of that. It knows it needs their vote to remain in power. Fence sitting is as much, perhaps more, about domestic politics as it is about foreign policy. 

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